Vintage market

Discussion of vintage Jazzmasters, Jaguars, Bass VIs, Electric XIIs and any other offset-waist instruments.
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SignoftheDragon
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Re: Vintage market

Post by SignoftheDragon » Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:51 am

eggwheat wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:22 am
I'm afraid the world's gone insane..and I do wonder where this will all end.
In fire.

And tears.

And vintage guitars if yer lucky.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by Highnumbers » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:23 am

johnnysomersett wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:16 am
I'm intrigued as to what catapulted the sudden interest in vintage offsets beyond the Grunge-era kids getting old enough to afford them? There's a LOT of older collectors / players that wouldn't look twice at them before (and openly disparaged them) that all of a sudden are going ga-ga to own one. Could it be because pre-CBS Strats and Teles (what they likely truly want) just got so insanely expensive that they finally looked in the direction of our world?
I have noticed some older collectors who previously scoffed at Offsets and derided them as "surf guitars" ( ::) ) suddenly take an interest.

To some extent, I think it's a psychological thing. When they see other people paying $20K for a Jazzmaster, they start to think there's something other people are seeing that they're not, and jump into the market. Maybe it's driven by FOMO?

I don't think that they're turning to Offsets because they're inexpensive compared to Strats/Teles, it's quite the opposite.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by johnnysomersett » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:42 am

Highnumbers wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:23 am
johnnysomersett wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:16 am
I'm intrigued as to what catapulted the sudden interest in vintage offsets beyond the Grunge-era kids getting old enough to afford them? There's a LOT of older collectors / players that wouldn't look twice at them before (and openly disparaged them) that all of a sudden are going ga-ga to own one. Could it be because pre-CBS Strats and Teles (what they likely truly want) just got so insanely expensive that they finally looked in the direction of our world?
I have noticed some older collectors who previously scoffed at Offsets and derided them as "surf guitars" ( ::) ) suddenly take an interest.

To some extent, I think it's a psychological thing. When they see other people paying $20K for a Jazzmaster, they start to think there's something other people are seeing that they're not, and jump into the market. Maybe it's driven by FOMO?

I don't think that they're turning to Offsets because they're inexpensive compared to Strats/Teles, it's quite the opposite.
Maybe, yeah. It is funny how it's turned so suddenly though. I do definitely think that the fact a custom-colour pre-CBS Strat being, what, 30k+ may have had a play in them looking at the 5k-ish Jazzmasters and realising they could afford them much easier. Go back 2 years, if you were an older guitar player/collector who suddenly had an extra 10k to play with due to Covid, you couldn't buy an early Strat but you COULD have afforded a sweet custom colour Jazzmaster.

I mean, its just a theory, and totally unsubstantiated :D
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Re: Vintage market

Post by Russell1982 » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:59 am

I wonder also how much it may be people ignorant of the fact a vintage guitar is “overpriced,” such as myself. I had always assumed all vintage fenders and Gibsons would be priced really high, then seeing a 60’s Jaguar for about 5 grand thought “hmm, that’s actually attainable.” Even though a couple years ago they might have been half that. So someone like me, but with the cash, might buy it and then the trend is slowly set for sellers to price theirs the same and so on.

Again, just a thought.

I also think, as others have mentioned, it has a lot to do with people just buying a vintage guitar that’s affordable for some collector value or some investment, as they can’t afford a Strat or a Les Paul but can afford a Jag or a mustang.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by Highnumbers » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:08 am

Russell1982 wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:59 am
I wonder also how much it may be people ignorant of the fact a vintage guitar is “overpriced,” such as myself.
If an item sells, it's impossible for it to be "overpriced."

As always, the market sets the actual value, whether it's high, low or in-between. If a guitar sells in a reasonable amount of time, it's not overpriced.

Does seeing other people pay $20K for a '59 Jazzmaster instill confidence in me paying that much for one? Certainly it does, but only because it reflects what the market value is right now. The future is anybody's guess.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by Russell1982 » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:17 am

Well yeah, obviously anything is only worth as much as people are willing to pay. If everyone refused to pay above a grand for a guitar eventually the prices would drop. Basic supply and demand essentially. But I think the conversation was just about what has made the prices suddenly rise so much so fast. Just throwing out theories or ideas really.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by Ruttiger » Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:41 pm

One thing I wonder about with the way this market has gone insane in the last couple years is how focused some of the high-end shops have become on social media and Reverb. It seems like every shop has an instagram feed (and possibly a youtube channel) full of just arrived, better get it before it's gone vintage guitars being refreshed everyday, which you can instantly purchase.

Before this, you might see a vintage guitar every once in a while when you stopped in a shop or browsed their website so you missed out on tons that came up for sale. Now if you follow some guitar stores, you are inundated with tons of them, and I think there is some FOMO going on, and a lot of buying/trading with prices going up each time.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by rexter » Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:16 am

I don't see vintage prices going down again. With inflation spiralling and general volatility in risk assets and stocks, a tangible asset like a 1960s Fender is something good to keep in the vault so to speak. Talking about people with money here of course, who can profit from a financial crisis. I've seen some nice things going for good prices in ebay auctions etc lately, presumably people who NEED money to live, but dealer prices can only keep going up the way I see it - scarcity and increased demand.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by T70 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:42 am

I am considering selling a few pre-CBS offsets, but where would I put the money? Can't keep it as cash, it'll lose 10% a year. Stock market is not confidence inspiring right now, nor is investing in small business (recession rumors swirling). Pay down the mortgage? Not interested, it's only 2.5%.

Buyers are in a similar boat from the other side, not only with guitars but with all desirable assets (collector watch market is another extreme example). These assets that you can use and enjoy are kind of the next step to many investors after they get the basics down (401k, etc)

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Re: Vintage market

Post by sal paradise » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:44 am

T70 wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:42 am
I am considering selling a few pre-CBS offsets, but where would I put the money? Can't keep it as cash, it'll lose 10% a year. Stock market is not confidence inspiring right now, nor is investing in small business (recession rumors swirling). Pay down the mortgage? Not interested, it's only 2.5%.

Buyers are in a similar boat from the other side, not only with guitars but with all desirable assets (collector watch market is another extreme example). These assets that you can use and enjoy are kind of the next step to many investors after they get the basics down (401k, etc)
Given the current situation, gas, oil & cereals are probably a safe investment for the next 18 months. Then move them back to tech stocks when this inflatory period is over.

Or, weapons manufacturers will be having a bumper few years having to replace everything Europe & the US have sent to Ukraine.

More fun: NFTs or Roulette
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Re: Vintage market

Post by rbrcbr » Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:42 pm

Highnumbers wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:23 am
johnnysomersett wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:16 am
I'm intrigued as to what catapulted the sudden interest in vintage offsets beyond the Grunge-era kids getting old enough to afford them? There's a LOT of older collectors / players that wouldn't look twice at them before (and openly disparaged them) that all of a sudden are going ga-ga to own one. Could it be because pre-CBS Strats and Teles (what they likely truly want) just got so insanely expensive that they finally looked in the direction of our world?
I have noticed some older collectors who previously scoffed at Offsets and derided them as "surf guitars" ( ::) ) suddenly take an interest.

To some extent, I think it's a psychological thing. When they see other people paying $20K for a Jazzmaster, they start to think there's something other people are seeing that they're not, and jump into the market. Maybe it's driven by FOMO?

I don't think that they're turning to Offsets because they're inexpensive compared to Strats/Teles, it's quite the opposite.
I didn't read the most recent posts on this thread so forgive me if I've repeated anything, but I was chatting with an older collector the other day at work and he was talking about how offsets weren't really on his radar, he was always a strat/tele guy and I suppose his attention was drawn to them recently. I'd imagine it's the same thing with most older collectors, the market went up because more people started playing them and suddenly they became more collectable and any "collector worth his salt" should own a good pre CBS jazzmaster/jaguar. Or they played a well set up one through a familiar amp and realized they're good sounding guitars. Who knows.

It's a strange thing to witness but it seems like at this rate the prices will never go down. I'm starting to understand that instead of investing into stocks, many people invest into valuable guitars. And the thing is, Fender is not making any more 50s/60s jazzmasters, that era has come and gone and there is a finite stock of those things out there. Seems they'll only ever get more valuable.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by mcatano » Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:53 pm

People spending $20K+ on a vintage guitar almost certainly aren't buying just one, and are buying them in addition to (not instead of) other speculative assets.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by camilonava27 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 5:50 pm

graceless wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 4:01 pm
camilonava27 wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:31 pm
Russell1982 wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 2:50 pm
As someone who only recently thought about looking at vintage jaguars, what do you guys consider is a “decent” price and what do you think is overpriced? I was surprised, when looking, to find a couple of late 60’s jags for about £4,700 to £5,000, as I’d assumed they’d be a lot more. But then I’ve seen a lot for closer to £10,000
I bought my Mid 65 Sunburst Jaguar last December for $3.9k USD. It’s crazy to me how much they’ve gone up. I would say anything from $4-5k USD is pretty fair
I paid $4k for an early '65 Jag April 21, I would say our price points are probably the last sub-$5k 62-65 jags.
Unfortunately, I’m gonna have to agree with you.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by Highnumbers » Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:10 pm

rbrcbr wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:42 pm
I didn't read the most recent posts on this thread so forgive me if I've repeated anything, but I was chatting with an older collector the other day at work and he was talking about how offsets weren't really on his radar, he was always a strat/tele guy and I suppose his attention was drawn to them recently. I'd imagine it's the same thing with most older collectors, the market went up because more people started playing them and suddenly they became more collectable and any "collector worth his salt" should own a good pre CBS jazzmaster/jaguar. Or they played a well set up one through a familiar amp and realized they're good sounding guitars. Who knows.
That’s exactly what I’m seeing.

As great as JM/Jags are to play, I don’t think it’s any great awakening to that which is causing certain collectors to get one. It’s simply collectors influencing one another. A couple prominent collectors get a Jazzmaster and suddenly it’s a ‘must-have’ in any decent collection.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by cestlamort » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:23 am

And it all snowballs as people buy offsets as alternative speculation investments to strats/teles, driving up the prices, and thus demand…
Inflation does play a major role here, too, both in the general economy (commodities et al) and the informal of what people are paying for music stuff in general. I still vividly remember my first $200+ pedal as a major purchase (DBA interstellar overdrive supreme, over 10 years ago now, didn’t stick around) and now it seems rare for a new pedal to be less than $200, with many often twice that. Even used non-vintage offsets (avri, CIJ) also doubling over the last 10 years. Rising tides etc etc

First hand: I put my 64 jag (partial refin) up for sale a year or so ago (with the simple rationale of that I wasn’t playing it as much as a should) but pulled it when prices started going bonkers. No point in getting off the ride early …

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