do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Discussion of newer designs, copies and reissue offset-waist instruments.
Post Reply
User avatar
seenoevil II
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 1307
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:59 pm

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by seenoevil II » Sat May 22, 2021 7:46 pm

That said, you have to keep in mind that automation has reached a point where the practical differences between a $2000 and $200-400 guitar are getting pretty insignificant (depending on the maker of both of course). And that was not at all even a little the case "back in the day." There are $200-300 guitars coming in with roasted maple necks and stainless steel frets now.

It's really gotten to where you have look yourself in the mirror and say, "dammit, I just really want to pay 5-10 times more for a virtually identical product because, well, __insert rationalization here__."

Now all of this goes mostly out the window when you start talking about acoustics.

Let's also take a moment to pour one out for all the fingers lopped off by band saws and pin routers, the lungs filled with nitro and sawdust, the cochlear hair cells lain flat foever. I want to think that overseas factories are at least a little better on this shit nowadays... maybe... hopefully... maybe.

But, if novelty is your thing, and you're just looking for something new to try. If you've already bought into the "real deal" expensive gear club, then you're still ok. A rising tide lifts all boats (or whatever). You can sell or trade your now $5000 AVRI for another differenter $5000 guitar.

I'm just glad I'm in GAS remission these days, because woof. They just keep moving those goal posts don't they. Neo-feudalism here we come.
If it wasn't for disappointment, I wouldn't have any appointments.

User avatar
Wucan
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 306
Joined: Fri May 07, 2021 12:45 pm

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by Wucan » Sat May 22, 2021 8:21 pm

seenoevil II wrote:
Sat May 22, 2021 7:46 pm
That said, you have to keep in mind that automation has reached a point where the practical differences between a $2000 and $200-400 guitar are getting pretty insignificant (depending on the maker of both of course). And that was not at all even a little the case "back in the day." There are $200-300 guitars coming in with roasted maple necks and stainless steel frets now.

It's really gotten to where you have look yourself in the mirror and say, "dammit, I just really want to pay 5-10 times more for a virtually identical product because, well, __insert rationalization here__."

Now all of this goes mostly out the window when you start talking about acoustics.

Let's also take a moment to pour one out for all the fingers lopped off by band saws and pin routers, the lungs filled with nitro and sawdust, the cochlear hair cells lain flat foever. I want to think that overseas factories are at least a little better on this shit nowadays... maybe... hopefully... maybe.

But, if novelty is your thing, and you're just looking for something new to try. If you've already bought into the "real deal" expensive gear club, then you're still ok. A rising tide lifts all boats (or whatever). You can sell or trade your now $5000 AVRI for another differenter $5000 guitar.

I'm just glad I'm in GAS remission these days, because woof. They just keep moving those goal posts don't they. Neo-feudalism here we come.
When I had a strat itch, I first bought a Fender American Professional... REALLY didn't like it. Not just the specs, but the frets were sharp and dull and for a $1400 guitar it simply had no remarkable appointment - boring finish, thin satin neck, in-house cost-cutting parts, not even any additional options with the electronics outside of treble bleed.

Then I bought a Squier Classic Vibe 50's and not only it was almost 1/4 of the price but it felt like the better guitar. I had also bought a Yamaha 612 which was just as good for 1/3 of the price but I didn't get along with the specs. If you know where to look, you don't have to spend much for a quality guitar.

User avatar
robroe
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:53 pm
Location: Buffalo NY
Contact:

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by robroe » Sun May 23, 2021 3:32 am

Pepe Silvia wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 9:14 am
A good beer should not have a sour flavor unless it is a sour. I can't say I've had many savoury (umami) beers either. I like a good IPA, but I agree they are played out, and I'm not a fan of IPAs with more than the four beer ingredients, I like straight forward beers.

Back to guitars. Reverb has a new feature where you can import the gear in your collection and it keeps track of values. I put in the main pieces and got some surprising results.

Jeff Tweedy SG: Paid $1400 3 or 4 years ago. Worth $2200-3100 now.
65 TS Jazzmaster, bought new for $2100 or whatever. Worth $1600-2500 now.
69 Bandmaster Reverb head. Paid $200 plus a $300 Tiny Terror a decade ago. Worth $900-1500 now.
Klon KTR. I traded a VHT Special 6 which I may have spent $200 on. Worth $630-800 now
Moog MuRF. Spent $275. Worth $460-640.

So across the board, all my stuff is worth a lot more. And I feel like if this feature gains traction, it will help drive up prices more. It is fast and easy to enter your gear and then you see a 5 figure amount for all your stuff, and you see a guitar that is unbeknownst to you, worth double what you paid so you list it to get some cash.

i went into my reverb profile looking for this but I cant find it. whats it called where do i click

User avatar
Pepe Silvia
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 5700
Joined: Thu May 14, 2009 11:44 am
Location: Philadelphia

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by Pepe Silvia » Sun May 23, 2021 3:39 am

robroe wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 3:32 am
Pepe Silvia wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 9:14 am
A good beer should not have a sour flavor unless it is a sour. I can't say I've had many savoury (umami) beers either. I like a good IPA, but I agree they are played out, and I'm not a fan of IPAs with more than the four beer ingredients, I like straight forward beers.

Back to guitars. Reverb has a new feature where you can import the gear in your collection and it keeps track of values. I put in the main pieces and got some surprising results.

Jeff Tweedy SG: Paid $1400 3 or 4 years ago. Worth $2200-3100 now.
65 TS Jazzmaster, bought new for $2100 or whatever. Worth $1600-2500 now.
69 Bandmaster Reverb head. Paid $200 plus a $300 Tiny Terror a decade ago. Worth $900-1500 now.
Klon KTR. I traded a VHT Special 6 which I may have spent $200 on. Worth $630-800 now
Moog MuRF. Spent $275. Worth $460-640.

So across the board, all my stuff is worth a lot more. And I feel like if this feature gains traction, it will help drive up prices more. It is fast and easy to enter your gear and then you see a 5 figure amount for all your stuff, and you see a guitar that is unbeknownst to you, worth double what you paid so you list it to get some cash.

i went into my reverb profile looking for this but I cant find it. whats it called where do i click
https://reverb.com/my/collection

User avatar
seenoevil II
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 1307
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:59 pm

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by seenoevil II » Sun May 23, 2021 6:29 am

So, that's a cool feature and all, but letting one marketplace be an authority on what is fair market price is a bit sketchy and possibly why prices are shooting up so high to begin with.
If it wasn't for disappointment, I wouldn't have any appointments.

User avatar
Pepe Silvia
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 5700
Joined: Thu May 14, 2009 11:44 am
Location: Philadelphia

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by Pepe Silvia » Sun May 23, 2021 6:58 am

seenoevil II wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 6:29 am
So, that's a cool feature and all, but letting one marketplace be an authority on what is fair market price is a bit sketchy and possibly why prices are shooting up so high to begin with.
Exactly

User avatar
deluxejazzmaster
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:50 pm
Location: Humboldt Co. USA

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by deluxejazzmaster » Sun May 23, 2021 8:29 am

All things will neutralize once the shock sets in about people having to get back to work for their income. The only thing working against that is the inflation is insane compared to last year at this time. I looked at the going value for new and used CS offsets and in a year they have almost jumped by 50 percent of what I paid (got mine almost a year ago now). Gear all tends to go up in price depending on the quantity build and popularity of that gear (as well all now) but just the internet alone has made things bonkers and before this pandemic inflation. There is also a wild thing going on with actual commodities in that the wood and metals (not to mention materials for paints and electronics) then throw in the price of shipping.... that stew helps calm the surprise and helps make sense of the world we are in now trying to get guitars. It's interesting to see many new items on the fender website and in their carriers being marked as "coming soon" or giving some date in the future months that they will expect more to be shipped to them.... something is a foul in this present economy and Jag and JZ fans are getting the shit end of the stick :w00t:
It could always be worse

User avatar
robroe
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:53 pm
Location: Buffalo NY
Contact:

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by robroe » Sun May 23, 2021 8:32 am

Pepe Silvia wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 3:39 am
robroe wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 3:32 am
Pepe Silvia wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 9:14 am
A good beer should not have a sour flavor unless it is a sour. I can't say I've had many savoury (umami) beers either. I like a good IPA, but I agree they are played out, and I'm not a fan of IPAs with more than the four beer ingredients, I like straight forward beers.

Back to guitars. Reverb has a new feature where you can import the gear in your collection and it keeps track of values. I put in the main pieces and got some surprising results.

Jeff Tweedy SG: Paid $1400 3 or 4 years ago. Worth $2200-3100 now.
65 TS Jazzmaster, bought new for $2100 or whatever. Worth $1600-2500 now.
69 Bandmaster Reverb head. Paid $200 plus a $300 Tiny Terror a decade ago. Worth $900-1500 now.
Klon KTR. I traded a VHT Special 6 which I may have spent $200 on. Worth $630-800 now
Moog MuRF. Spent $275. Worth $460-640.

So across the board, all my stuff is worth a lot more. And I feel like if this feature gains traction, it will help drive up prices more. It is fast and easy to enter your gear and then you see a 5 figure amount for all your stuff, and you see a guitar that is unbeknownst to you, worth double what you paid so you list it to get some cash.

i went into my reverb profile looking for this but I cant find it. whats it called where do i click
https://reverb.com/my/collection
When I click on that it just takes me to reverb.com (I'm using my phone if that matters not a computer)

User avatar
Larry Mal
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 19674
Joined: Mon Nov 29, 2010 4:25 pm
Location: Saint Louis, MO

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by Larry Mal » Sun May 23, 2021 8:48 am

It's also worth bearing in mind that for me, anyway, almost any guitar I buy tends to get more money invested in it anyway. For instance, if I bought my buddy's American Special Strat, I would need to shield it, almost certainly put in new pickups and electronics, likely a better bridge and vibrato. So I'm likely to sink in another $400 or so.

I think I'm holding tight with what I already have. I have all I could ever need. But frankly, for an industry that really should be persuading people like me to spend more, they are instead alienating me with high prices and only moderate quality.

I'm not one of those that feels that a $300 Squier is any good. Sure, it's a fine factory carved piece of wood and the finish is sprayed on in an adequate way. But the pickups are bad, the parts are all cheap, it's noisy and I'm going to have to address all of that going forward... all I'm getting is a carved bit of wood and some sprayed finish and no resale value. I could put in decent stuff but I lose value the moment I do so.

I did take the time to look up the average salary at Fender as well as what the CEO makes, and frankly, it's reasonable.

"The average estimated annual salary, including base and bonus, at Fender Musical Instruments is $88,179, or $42 per hour, while the estimated median salary is $103,614, or $49 per hour.

At Fender Musical Instruments, the highest paid job is a Sales Rep at $116,410 annually and the lowest is a Bookkeeper at $41,910 annually. Average Fender Musical Instruments salaries by department include: Customer Support at $58,794, Admin at $53,439, IT at $102,599, and Operations at $84,013. Half of Fender Musical Instruments salaries are above $103,614."


The CEO of the company makes somewhere around $800,000- a lot, sure. But nothing that is as incredibly gross as you find in a lot of places. People have been complaining about the push for higher wages and the CEO of Taco Bell, for instance, makes around $4 million a year. Like, maybe he only makes a million a year and the people that actually make the fucking tacos can make enough to live in an apartment or something.

But I don't see Fender being that gross.
Back in those days, everyone knew that if you were talking about Destiny's Child, you were talking about Beyonce, LaTavia, LeToya, and Larry.

User avatar
Pepe Silvia
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 5700
Joined: Thu May 14, 2009 11:44 am
Location: Philadelphia

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by Pepe Silvia » Sun May 23, 2021 9:56 am

robroe wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 8:32 am
Pepe Silvia wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 3:39 am
robroe wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 3:32 am



i went into my reverb profile looking for this but I cant find it. whats it called where do i click
https://reverb.com/my/collection
When I click on that it just takes me to reverb.com (I'm using my phone if that matters not a computer)
I'm on phone too. Are you logged into your account ?

User avatar
kaptainkaffeine
PAT PEND
PAT PEND
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed May 19, 2021 9:35 am

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by kaptainkaffeine » Sun May 23, 2021 10:03 am

I sure hope so. It feels pretty bad to be looking right now while everybody's saying that the bubble is still getting bigger. Maybe it won't ever burst, but it's a tough to want to buy. Seems like everything available goes from "basically brand new, mint condition, perfect, barely there minor play wear" for the same price (or slightly more!) than new to "vintage, all original, perfectly preserved" at twice that.

so either suck it up and knowingly overpay or remain forever hopeful that I can snipe a reasonably priced one that doesn't need too much work done. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

User avatar
seenoevil II
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 1307
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:59 pm

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by seenoevil II » Sun May 23, 2021 10:37 am

If I may chuck another observation into the pot. That on CL where I'm at, there's one guitar model that's not shooting up in price, but instead is depreciating in a very reasonsble way: and that's the Gibson Les Paul. There are a half dozen on CL for $1600-1800. And we're talking figure top standard models.

Is it time for an ironic pendulum reversal in terms of taste ? They were never bad guitars, they were just played by the worst kinds of people.

Do we take it back? Like hipsters moving to Boise, do we make this stuffy conservative thing cool? Well, we're almost certainly easy too old to make anything cool, but still.
If it wasn't for disappointment, I wouldn't have any appointments.

User avatar
Embenny
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 10363
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 5:07 am

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by Embenny » Sun May 23, 2021 11:36 am

Like HNB, I'm finding more and more value in DIY/custom builds. Like Larry pointed out, most factory instruments need extra money invested into them anyway if you enjoy quality hardware and quiet electronics. The resale argument for factory instruments doesn't hold up well once you start upgrading.

Might as well go full custom, from my perspective. The neck I just got from PST Guitars is easily nicer than any I've ever gotten on a factory guitar, and I got to choose everything from wood to inlay, profile, frets, radius, and even what kind of truss rod I wanted and where I wanted to be adjusting it from. I've got a nitro body arriving from Guitarmill in a colour I've fantasized about for literally 2 decades (G&L blueburst). I have another body being refinished by Stike at Rowyco Kustoms in a purple sparkleburst that I've only seen once on a Fender CS build.

I can have all that, made by American workers earning living wages in safe shop conditions, for a price that is far lower than stock instruments of comparable quality, and similar to upgrading a guitar that was made by people being paid much lower wages and/or working in shops with less stringent safety regulations.

People say custom builds are a crapshoot in terms of final quality, but that's true of factory builds in this era of online shopping. How many people these past 2 years have been going in to a shop, playing a guitar, and saying, "yeah, this is the one," and walking home with it? A very low percentage compared to the past, certainly.

My experience has been that putting together quality parts, with a quality setup, results in a quality guitar. I suspect the majority of "lemon" builds have been from either installation mishaps or the absence of a professional-quality setup. If you throw together parts without a great setup, you're essentially skipping the equivalent of QC at the factory. I've invested a lot of time and some money in tools as I've learned to do more and more setup work myself, but even if you have zero skills, it doesn't cost much to get frets leveled and nuts slotted correctly compared to the parts cost of a build, and the overall impression of the final guitar will be dramatically improved.
The artist formerly known as mbene085.

User avatar
robroe
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:53 pm
Location: Buffalo NY
Contact:

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by robroe » Sun May 23, 2021 1:24 pm

Pepe Silvia wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 9:56 am
robroe wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 8:32 am
Pepe Silvia wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 3:39 am


https://reverb.com/my/collection
When I click on that it just takes me to reverb.com (I'm using my phone if that matters not a computer)
I'm on phone too. Are you logged into your account ?
Yep. I'm logged in, I have the app on my phone, I am a reverb checking fiend. I'll try it when I get home on my PC and a chromebook

User avatar
s_mcsleazy
PAT. # 2.972.923
PAT. # 2.972.923
Posts: 18425
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:30 am
Location: glasgow

Re: do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

Post by s_mcsleazy » Sun May 23, 2021 3:38 pm

i'm kinda shocked at some of the guitars that people are over-inflating. basically any guitar that's been off the market for more than 5 years. i seen someone try to sell a stock VM jaguar a few weeks ago for £400. or the price of the modern player jazzmasters, pre pandemic were worth £300-£350 and now i see people trying to get £600 for them. oh and let's not even talk about what's happened to the baritone jazzmasters.
offset guitars resident bass player.
'Are you trying to seduce me Mrs Robinson? Or do you just want me to solder a couple of resistors into your Muff?'

Post Reply