do we think prices will come back down to some semblance of reality?

[s_mcsleazy]

As long as people have entire warehouses full of collected guitars in Nashville that they will never play probably not

Ugh. God, how many dickhead bonamossa types are out there doing that?

can one of the mods please make some kind of script where if someone mentions joe bonnameschermit's name, it will automatically place this photo?

[LVC]

i'm kinda shocked at some of the guitars that people are over-inflating. basically any guitar that's been off the market for more than 5 years. i seen someone try to sell a stock VM jaguar a few weeks ago for £400. or the price of the modern player jazzmasters, pre pandemic were worth £300-£350 and now i see people trying to get £600 for them. oh and let's not even talk about what's happened to the baritone jazzmasters.

I've noticed that as well. Apparently "out of production" means "desirable, rare and vintage" now.

can one of the mods please make some kind of script where if someone mentions joe bonnameschermit's name, it will automatically place this photo?

You know, his actual "oh yeah baby I'm a badass blooz rocker in the middle of a badass blooz rock solo" face would be even better.

[s_mcsleazy]

i'm kinda shocked at some of the guitars that people are over-inflating. basically any guitar that's been off the market for more than 5 years. i seen someone try to sell a stock VM jaguar a few weeks ago for £400. or the price of the modern player jazzmasters, pre pandemic were worth £300-£350 and now i see people trying to get £600 for them. oh and let's not even talk about what's happened to the baritone jazzmasters.

I've noticed that as well. Apparently "out of production" means "desirable, rare and vintage" now.

can one of the mods please make some kind of script where if someone mentions joe bonnameschermit's name, it will automatically place this photo?

You know, his actual "oh yeah baby I'm a badass blooz rocker in the middle of a badass blooz rock solo" face would be even better.

i think i like mine more because of the video it's from.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LB871SVYMhI (warning, kinda disturbing)

[kaptainkaffeine]

People say custom builds are a crapshoot in terms of final quality, but that's true of factory builds in this era of online shopping.

Many of the custom builds for sale online are as or more expensive than their late vintage counterparts. But as far as playability and general quality go, it nearly seems like a used custom is a better bet sometimes because at least you know somebody cared enough to put it together. Having a custom built from scratch seems daunting, though.

[JamesSGBrown]

I work in a shop that deals with a lot of used stuff, and prices have definitely been creeping up for Fender and Gibson (and Squier). Not so much anything else though, from what I can tell anyhow. I think as people start playing out more again and inevitably end up putting stuff on the chopping block as they pursue their own sound again then we might see that steady rise slow down, but I don't think prices will come down anytime soon... hence why I've grabbed 2 JM's and a Venus in the last 2 months
There are still some great deals to be had, just maybe not in the obvious avenues of Reverb etc. I find brick and mortar shops are more willing to barter now that they know their competition is so accessible. Gotta give people a reason to actually hit the high street these days.

[patski]

The neck I just got from PST Guitars is easily nicer than any I've ever gotten on a factory guitar...

How much was it, Mike?

[Embenny]

The neck I just got from PST Guitars is easily nicer than any I've ever gotten on a factory guitar...

How much was it, Mike?

Base price for the neck, in AAA flame maple (his base wood, you can ask for a free downgrade to plain but AAA flame is included in the base price!) with satin poly finish was $299.

My particular neck was $589, because I added black block inlays ($75), black binding ($75), a tusq nut installed and slotted to depth ($60), and locking Fender tuners ($79 bought through PST at retail price, installation included for free).

I didn't trust myself to install a nut on a bound neck without messing it up, so I decided to have him install and slot it while he was at it. The locking tuners have little pins you have to drill the back of the headstock for, and I would never have installed them straight if I attempted that myself. I was thrilled to get such a lovely finished BB&B neck with locking tuners for $589. I picked the thickness, taper, profile, fret size, radius, and made it a conversion neck (24.75") while I was at it.

He even installed the Rothko & Frost (non-Fender) decal I sent him under the finish at no cost. I sent him two copies so that he wouldn't have to worry if one got damaged - he was willing to do it, but asked that I absolve him of any waterslide mishaps because they can be finicky. He got it on the first try though, and sent the second copy back with the neck. Even the packing job he did on it for shipping was above and beyond. You could have used the box as a baseball bat for an inning or two, and it would probably have been fine.

Great service, great neck, great price. Could not be happier. Will be going back if I need any more custom necks, that's for sure.

[patski]

The neck I just got from PST Guitars is easily nicer than any I've ever gotten on a factory guitar...

How much was it, Mike?

Base price for the neck, in AAA flame maple (his base wood, you can ask for a free downgrade to plain but AAA flame is included in the base price!) with satin poly finish was $299.

My particular neck was $589, because I added black block inlays ($75), black binding ($75), a tusq nut installed and slotted to depth ($60), and locking Fender tuners ($79 bought through PST at retail price, installation included for free).

I didn't trust myself to install a nut on a bound neck without messing it up, so I decided to have him install and slot it while he was at it. The locking tuners have little pins you have to drill the back of the headstock for, and I would never have installed them straight if I attempted that myself. I was thrilled to get such a lovely finished BB&B neck with locking tuners for $589. I picked the thickness, taper, profile, fret size, radius, and made it a conversion neck (24.75") while I was at it.

He even installed the Rothko & Frost (non-Fender) decal I sent him under the finish at no cost. I sent him two copies so that he wouldn't have to worry if one got damaged - he was willing to do it, but asked that I absolve him of any waterslide mishaps because they can be finicky. He got it on the first try though, and sent the second copy back with the neck. Even the packing job he did on it for shipping was above and beyond. You could have used the box as a baseball bat for an inning or two, and it would probably have been fine.

Great service, great neck, great price. Could not be happier. Will be going back if I need any more custom necks, that's for sure.

Black binding, whoa!!! Thanks for the write-up, Mike! That sounds seriously awesome and I'd love to see a pic of it. I was on Guitar Mill's site the other day for a while speccing out a neck and I was really impressed with all the options offered. Threads such as this one are leading me to believe I can actually build a guitar for around the same price as MIA or less. When I have a steady income again, this is likely what I'll do. Did you get dinged on taxes? Or have to pay any additional BS fees?

[Powdered Toast Man]

That said, you have to keep in mind that automation has reached a point where the practical differences between a $2000 and $200-400 guitar are getting pretty insignificant (depending on the maker of both of course). And that was not at all even a little the case "back in the day." There are $200-300 guitars coming in with roasted maple necks and stainless steel frets now.

It's really gotten to where you have look yourself in the mirror and say, "dammit, I just really want to pay 5-10 times more for a virtually identical product because, well, __insert rationalization here__."

Well this brings up the question of HOW they managed to make a guitar and sell it for $300 and still make a profit on it.

A good example I've seen is the $10 T-shirt. You've all seen them - there's usually a table at the front of most clothing stores with t-shirts for 10 bucks. Here's the thing, HOW did they manage to get a t-shirt made for less than 10 bucks? I have friends who are into sewing and you can't even make your own t-shirt for less than 10 dollars based on the cost of fabric alone. So some clothing company obtained the raw materials, has the overhead of a factory, labour to make it, packed and shipped it over the ocean, put it on a truck, and then put it on a shelf in a store - all for a retail price of 10 dollars.

The only way things like this are possible is if we, the consumers/buyers/end users don't ask any questions about how these things get made so cheaply. So that's cool if people think a $300 guitar is the same as a $2000 guitar - just don't ask where it came from or why it's $300. Why can't Fender make it's USA guitars cost $300? Because $2000 is what it costs to make a guitar in the USA.

[Beebe]

Weren't new Fenders back in the day costing two months salary or something crazy like that? I think if you took that as a starting point and calculated today's cost using inflation they would be costing a lot more.

Yes and no. Yes to it costing over a month's wages at minimum wage, no to it being more expensive than today.

A standard strat in 1964 was $252 in the price list. That's $2126 today, using much less automation than modern USA Fenders, but hitting a similar price point as the higher end non-custom shop models like the Ultra.

Minimum wage was $1.25, which is $10.54 today, so it would take you 201.6 hours at minimum wage to buy a USA-made strat. Those same 201.6 hours at minimum wage in 2021 would give you a budget of $1461 today, which will not buy you a modern American-made equivalent to that 1964 strat. The amount of manual American labour that went into making that '64 would only be encountered in the Custom Shop. Good luck getting a CS strat for $1461.

And that is, of course, not even factoring the massively increased percentage of people's wages that go toward housing, food, and transportation compared to 1964, meaning that a bigger chunk of each paycheck could have gone toward saving for that guitar back then, and you'd be buying it much more quickly.

It was a lot easier to buy an American-made electric guitar in the pre-CBS years, for sure. And that's an important benchmark, because those guitars took a huge number of hours of American labour that were themselves more expensive back then. Yes, you can buy a guitar with the same number of hours worked today, but that guitar was built with a combination of CNC and cheaper foreign labour that reduced production cost. You can't buy the equivalent instrument that used the equivalent number of American wage hours, that's for sure.

Nice analysis! And nice Pinback album cover photo!

[Beebe]

Here are some spreadsheet screenshots of what it costs me in parts to build a nice guitar. No shipping or labor included. I do stain/oil/shellac finishes which don't cost too much in supplies. An Esquire with pretty standard specs on the low end, and a Mahogany Mustang with 12" radius neck on the higher end. I play around with these sheets, so some parts here may be incompatible.
This is for DIY: finish, nut, fret dressing, and drilling a few holes.

Gibstang ($1128)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/og8ibyTqeoatUg25A

Esquire ($477)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Hz4Jgr9a8cnMh2YQ7

[Wucan]

Here are some spreadsheet screenshots of what it costs me in parts to build a nice guitar. No shipping or labor included. I do stain/oil/shellac finishes which don't cost too much in supplies. An Esquire with pretty standard specs on the low end, and a Mahogany Mustang with 12" radius neck on the higher end. I play around with these sheets, so some parts here may be incompatible.
This is for DIY: finish, nut, fret dressing, and drilling a few holes.

Gibstang ($1128)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/og8ibyTqeoatUg25A

Esquire ($477)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Hz4Jgr9a8cnMh2YQ7

When us plebs do our own builds, we're being hit in the head by the margins of retailers, who in turn have passed on to us the cost of wholesalers. We get 0 benefits from economies of scale from doing a lot of the same build or putting in large orders. And for many parts, there's an upcharge for distributing something scarce to the public. I wouldn't what would cost us to do a build as a reflection of what OEMs can afford to charge us for equivalent guitars.

[Beebe]

Here are some spreadsheet screenshots of what it costs me in parts to build a nice guitar. No shipping or labor included. I do stain/oil/shellac finishes which don't cost too much in supplies. An Esquire with pretty standard specs on the low end, and a Mahogany Mustang with 12" radius neck on the higher end. I play around with these sheets, so some parts here may be incompatible.
This is for DIY: finish, nut, fret dressing, and drilling a few holes.

Gibstang ($1128)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/og8ibyTqeoatUg25A

Esquire ($477)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Hz4Jgr9a8cnMh2YQ7

When us plebs do our own builds, we're being hit in the head by the margins of retailers, who in turn have passed on to us the cost of wholesalers. We get 0 benefits from economies of scale from doing a lot of the same build or putting in large orders. And for many parts, there's an upcharge for distributing something scarce to the public. I wouldn't what would cost us to do a build as a reflection of what OEMs can afford to charge us for equivalent guitars.

Yup! I'd love to hear people's ideas on ways around this. Building every part from scratch and standardizing to reduce labor is probably part of the answer. I like thinking about how I could standardize my own designs: bridge designs using brass bar stock or wood/bone and standard hardware, I've started developing my own paint using shellac and pigments. And trying to set myself apart by using only all natural / ancient staining and finishing processes... at the same time avoiding the cost of nitro. I've set some quality/ethical standards for myself by using only US, Japanese, Canadian, or European parts... Plus these are things people look for in a guitar they are spending more on. I also have an idea for a build your own guitar shop... Something like those paint your own pottery places that offer an experience on top of a product. But that's a different subject.

[Larry Mal]

Prices were up by 5 percent in May compared with a year ago, the largest increase since the Great Recession, continuing a steady climb in inflation even as policymakers insist on staying the course.

Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that prices rose 0.6 percent in the past month. Policymakers have predicted that prices will rise over the coming months, especially compared to a year ago when the economy was still reeling from the pandemic shutdowns.

The most recent crop of inflation figures are unlikely to rattle the Biden administration or Federal Reserve, both of which argue that prices will continue to rise as the economy recovers from the depths of the covid crisis.

The Fed is charged with keeping prices stable and unemployment low. And for now, it is not rushing to control inflation until there’s been substantial progress in the labor market, which is still down 7 million jobs.

On Saturday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said inflation could climb as high as 3 percent over the entire year, which would be considered high for the United States. Still, it’s unclear just how high inflation will be allowed to climb, and for how long, before policymakers in the administration and the Fed see cause for concern.

Fed and administration officials point to a range of factors that, they say, are temporarily driving prices up. Demand for goods and services — on anything from plane tickets to restaurant reservations — is rebounding as more people become vaccinated and are eager to unleash pent-up savings. Meanwhile, supply chains are struggling to catch up. Economists say that with time, those bottlenecks will smooth out.

Policymakers also expect inflation figures to taper off in the year to come. That’s in part because the super-low readings from the pandemic’s early days will gradually shift out of the calculation.

[vistavision]

Fed and administration officials point to a range of factors that, they say, are temporarily driving prices up. Demand for goods and services — on anything from plane tickets to restaurant reservations — is rebounding as more people become vaccinated and are eager to unleash pent-up savings. Meanwhile, supply chains are struggling to catch up. Economists say that with time, those bottlenecks will smooth out.

Policymakers also expect inflation figures to taper off in the year to come. That’s in part because the super-low readings from the pandemic’s early days will gradually shift out of the calculation.[/i]

This ↑↑↑
The year-to-year inflation analysis I've been reading is pure folly. A 15 month global pandemic lockdown is ending and anything comparing the current economic picture to previous slowdowns and recessions is daft. The price of oil a year ago reached negative numbers.