Vintage market

Discussion of vintage Jazzmasters, Jaguars, Bass VIs, Electric XIIs and any other offset-waist instruments.
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graceless
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Re: Vintage market

Post by graceless » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:40 am

Will be interesting to see what the economy does over the next year/two. I have seen more offsets for sale the past couple months than the last year combined, it was REALLY tricky to find a good one and now it seems they're all over the place, albeit at high prices. I expect due to this glut that prices could fall a bit if the economy doesn't recover or stagnates for a bit.

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gringopig
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Re: Vintage market

Post by gringopig » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:40 am

I'm seeing Les Paul juniors which went for £5k being advertised for £10k now. Prices have gone beyond what I think the guitars are worth now and I do have a number of vintage Fenders - all offsets. I paid £7k for a minty factory black '65 Jaguar a few years ago and I could probably sell it for double today but I'm not going to.

All the buyers of vintage guitars who are treating them as investments are going to get a shock. They are buying on the leading edge of a bubble, a unique set of circumstances which when over will leave them high and dry with instruments that may not be any better than a modern guitar but have a sizeable investment put into them that will never be realised maybe for decades.

As soon as I see yet another sunburst '50's junior on ATB, I know some buffoon will snap it up, play some out of tune Gary Moore licks on it and put it in a cupboard never to be seen again but for the odd photo on a guitar forum. Good luck to them.

My Huber wipes the floor with any vintage guitar I have ever played.

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Highnumbers
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Re: Vintage market

Post by Highnumbers » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:10 pm

gringopig wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:40 am
All the buyers of vintage guitars who are treating them as investments are going to get a shock. They are buying on the leading edge of a bubble, a unique set of circumstances which when over will leave them high and dry with instruments that may not be any better than a modern guitar but have a sizeable investment put into them that will never be realised maybe for decades.
That risk exists with every kind of investment on earth. Tangible or intangible.

There are no indicators that the market is going to drop-out on old guitars anytime soon, and most of the people stressing about a pending recession don't really understand economically what that means (and how minimal impact a recession can actually be), nor do they understand how the economic climate right now differs from 2008 when you saw the last major market correction on old guitars.

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Parksie
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Re: Vintage market

Post by Parksie » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:04 pm

I think the cats out of the bag now.........

https://reverb.com/au/item/56859701-196 ... slab-board

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johnnysomersett
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Re: Vintage market

Post by johnnysomersett » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:12 pm

Parksie wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:04 pm
I think the cats out of the bag now.........

https://reverb.com/au/item/56859701-196 ... slab-board
Holy shit
Silly Rabbit, don't you know scooped mids are for kids?
"buzzstops are for morons" - adamrobertt, 2022

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T70
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Re: Vintage market

Post by T70 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:39 am

Parksie wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:04 pm
I think the cats out of the bag now.........

https://reverb.com/au/item/56859701-196 ... slab-board
Price aside, what amazing condition on that guitar!

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Re: Vintage market

Post by welshywelsh » Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:50 am

Parksie wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:04 pm
I think the cats out of the bag now.........

https://reverb.com/au/item/56859701-196 ... slab-board
Anyone that pays that needs help!

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johnnysomersett
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Re: Vintage market

Post by johnnysomersett » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:44 am

welshywelsh wrote:
Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:50 am
Parksie wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:04 pm
I think the cats out of the bag now.........

https://reverb.com/au/item/56859701-196 ... slab-board
Anyone that pays that needs help!
Someone will. If I was a rich tech dork with limitless money and a penchant for rare offsets, I'd pay it.
Silly Rabbit, don't you know scooped mids are for kids?
"buzzstops are for morons" - adamrobertt, 2022

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gishuk
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Re: Vintage market

Post by gishuk » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:22 am

I actually think that price is pretty 'fair' considering the current market and how rare that particular guitar is.

Which is an insane thing to say I know, but still.

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gringopig
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Re: Vintage market

Post by gringopig » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:53 am

Highnumbers wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:10 pm
gringopig wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:40 am
All the buyers of vintage guitars who are treating them as investments are going to get a shock. They are buying on the leading edge of a bubble, a unique set of circumstances which when over will leave them high and dry with instruments that may not be any better than a modern guitar but have a sizeable investment put into them that will never be realised maybe for decades.
That risk exists with every kind of investment on earth. Tangible or intangible.

There are no indicators that the market is going to drop-out on old guitars anytime soon, and most of the people stressing about a pending recession don't really understand economically what that means (and how minimal impact a recession can actually be), nor do they understand how the economic climate right now differs from 2008 when you saw the last major market correction on old guitars.
The market is not behaving normally. There has been a doubling of prices in the last 2 years. Think of what has happened in the last 2 years and you can imagine that this price rise isn't organic in any way and less able to sustain that level in the longer term. I think it's a bubble and prices have risen to such an extent that the end recipient for the transfer of such an 'investment' into cash won't be available.
Property will always be required but vintage guitars may not be.

Just my opinion.

I'm not going to participate in the rush to buy. I don't think the guitars warrant it. I don't think they are worth it. You can make music on a Harley Benton just as well and I think investors will get screwed buying in at the top.

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Re: Vintage market

Post by northern_dirt » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:47 pm

I've noticed more movement in listings on Facebook marketplace type groups with pretty lowered prices.. nothing local, all from the USA.. so it might be a sign

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