Re: Cheapest way into a vintage offset?
Posted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:43 am
lmfao
Talk about the Fender Jazzmaster, Jaguar, and any other offset waist guitars with us!
https://offsetguitars.com/forums/
https://offsetguitars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=41&t=118572
I'm pessimistic. Wartime government spending has driven people to buy just about any kind of asset, while pandemic logistics have created temporary scarcity. Once the bill for COVID measures is due and supply chain flows normalize you'll probably see an unprecedented level of selling off.
This makes sense to me. I could see a bunch of AO and AV65 JMs and Jags ending up back on the market for good deals after things get more normal in 6-12 months. I don't think this applies to the FSR or thin skins as these special editions tend to be, well, special to people and even at slightly inflated prices are still way cheaper than a CS guitar. That's my $.02.
I appreciate this thread and especially this post very much. I just started really seriously looking into my first offset this month and the prices seemed insane to me. Glad I'm not the only one. It's nice to see all the weird gouging, dubiously expensive refinishes, etc that I thought I was seeing confirmed here. With all my local stores still closed, my only recourse has been a deep dive into all the extremely online pedantic nerdery that kind of takes the fun out of looking, heh.bterry wrote: ↑Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:21 pm
There’s a weird psychological aspect to it, plus a not-too-insignificant taking advantage of people aspect as well, IMO.
There are a lot of newcomers to the vintage Jazzmaster and Jaguar market and many of them don’t know what to pay, honestly. Add to that the big desire for custom color Jazzmasters that are incredibly hard to come by + increasing values and a few sellers who have noticed that and you get the occasional WTF.
I’ve posted about this before, but yeah, for all the economic stuff we see about how as older collectors die off the market will flood and drive prices way down, when I think about that it doesn’t make a lot of sense? Like, guitar manufacturers sell guitars right now for like $7,000-10,000 all over the place, often replicas of the old ones. If a new ‘replica’ of a vintage Strat costs $8,000, there’s zero chance you’re going to see an older, real one, for any less than what Fender charges for a replica.Wucan wrote: ↑Fri May 14, 2021 4:08 pmI'm pessimistic. Wartime government spending has driven people to buy just about any kind of asset, while pandemic logistics have created temporary scarcity. Once the bill for COVID measures is due and supply chain flows normalize you'll probably see an unprecedented level of selling off.
Vintage guitars will still stay expensive though due to inflation and the obvious fact they'll be always scarce. Even if people stop playing guitar the iconic stuff will be collective for generations to come.
Getting hosed is my real fear--I'm after something to keep and to play, not a collector's item. But if I'm honest with myself, I do want a nice one. American or Japanese, maybe some upgrades before or after I get it. That alone seems to push the price up to nearly $2000 at this point. I started looking on ebay too and realized I don't know enough to separate the real ones from the scams and fakes. And why are like 90% of ebay Jazzmasters sold from Japan? One guy had over 3000 items for sale and like 25 feedback. c'mon now.
I don't buy the "wait for boomers to die" argument either, I think that's based off doomers who think interest in guitars will die because they aren't plastered in every Top 40 song nowadays. Once a guitar unanimously becomes "vintage" it only becomes rarer with time. And even if guitar-playing did decline precipitously stuff like vintage Fenders, Gibsons, etc. will still be of interest to collectors - just like how people piss countless dollars in art without knowing anything about it. The point is that owning stuff like a 50's Strat will increasingly be an indicator of social status and prestige.Mechanical Birds wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 11:06 pmI’ve posted about this before, but yeah, for all the economic stuff we see about how as older collectors die off the market will flood and drive prices way down, when I think about that it doesn’t make a lot of sense? Like, guitar manufacturers sell guitars right now for like $7,000-10,000 all over the place, often replicas of the old ones. If a new ‘replica’ of a vintage Strat costs $8,000, there’s zero chance you’re going to see an older, real one, for any less than what Fender charges for a replica.Wucan wrote: ↑Fri May 14, 2021 4:08 pmI'm pessimistic. Wartime government spending has driven people to buy just about any kind of asset, while pandemic logistics have created temporary scarcity. Once the bill for COVID measures is due and supply chain flows normalize you'll probably see an unprecedented level of selling off.
Vintage guitars will still stay expensive though due to inflation and the obvious fact they'll be always scarce. Even if people stop playing guitar the iconic stuff will be collective for generations to come.
So yeah, ok, what is now a $30,000 Stratocaster might one day be only $15,000, but that still makes it entirely out of reach for an overwhelming majority of guitarists.
Because there is an entire army of "resellers" in Japan who take the photos and description of guitars for sale by other Japanese dealers and post them for sale on eBay at inflated prices, hoping to be the middleman without having to actually outlay any cash. You buy the guitar, they turn around and buy it from the other Japanese dealer at a lower price and ship it to you.kaptainkaffeine wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 9:05 am
I started looking on ebay too and realized I don't know enough to separate the real ones from the scams and fakes. And why are like 90% of ebay Jazzmasters sold from Japan? One guy had over 3000 items for sale and like 25 feedback. c'mon now.
As this thread has basically covered, Boomers don't care for offsets. Or if they do, they'll pick one up and say "nice surf guitar!" which is completely missing the point. The boomer sell-off will impact the market for some things, but not anything directly in OSG's area of focus.Wucan wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 10:48 amI don't buy the "wait for boomers to die" argument either, I think that's based off doomers who think interest in guitars will die because they aren't plastered in every Top 40 song nowadays. Once a guitar unanimously becomes "vintage" it only becomes rarer with time. And even if guitar-playing did decline precipitously stuff like vintage Fenders, Gibsons, etc. will still be of interest to collectors - just like how people piss countless dollars in art without knowing anything about it. The point is that owning stuff like a 50's Strat will increasingly be an indicator of social status and prestige.
Yep, I wouldn't expect it to be any cheaper to get into the vintage market moving forward. There will always be deals to be had if you look hard enough, but you can't expect them to last because everyone else is scouring the 'net for something.Highnumbers wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 12:23 pmAs this thread has basically covered, Boomers don't care for offsets. Or if they do, they'll pick one up and say "nice surf guitar!" which is completely missing the point. The boomer sell-off will impact the market for some things, but not anything directly in OSG's area of focus.Wucan wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 10:48 amI don't buy the "wait for boomers to die" argument either, I think that's based off doomers who think interest in guitars will die because they aren't plastered in every Top 40 song nowadays. Once a guitar unanimously becomes "vintage" it only becomes rarer with time. And even if guitar-playing did decline precipitously stuff like vintage Fenders, Gibsons, etc. will still be of interest to collectors - just like how people piss countless dollars in art without knowing anything about it. The point is that owning stuff like a 50's Strat will increasingly be an indicator of social status and prestige.
To your second point, on the social status and prestige thing.... it's hard to predict the future but if history tells us anything, keep an eye on Asia. When the Japanese economy boomed in the mid-1980s, buyers flocked to the U.S. and bought containers of guitars, paying top retail prices and driving the market off. That boom ended, and hasn't ever quite recovered, but there are 1.4 billion people in China, and some of them are exceedingly wealthy, and some of them are starting to realize the appeal of guitars (and especially vintage guitars, with any sort of perceived social status ideas). I met a couple when I visited Shanghai and Beijing for work in 2019.
Point being, if this thread is concerned about the prices right now, just know that things could get a whole lot more inflated in the next decade.