Danocaster - future value???

[j mascis]

What's a fair price for a single cut/tele style dano on the used market?

Maybe your thoughts on a standard one and then a mongrel would be helpful.

Now that his new ones are $2500 for standard single cuts, I'd think the used ones will start creeping up? I'm in the market for one, so I'm curious to hear what is a fair price.

[wooderson]

Based on my Reverb feed, it depends on age and color. Whites/blacks/blondes move slower and for less, very recent (ie 2016-2017) in a Fender custom color seem to move at $2400-2500.

[Larry Mal]

Probably in the long run, it won't be anything special. If the guitar loses popularity, then the only collectible models will be from the big established names in what will be the "golden era", which will preclude Danocaster.

I mean, let's look at the banjo, which was a red hot instrument in American music back in the day. What models survived the test of time there?

I just don't see it. I'm sure the guitars are great, but for them to stand out in an insanely crowded field fifty, a hundred, two hundred years for now? I just cannot see it.

[j mascis]

Yeah I agree, Larry.

I think we could see them go up for a years while inflation/cost of materials rise, and in that sense they could be good short-term, but if guitar dies the Dano will die right with it. I think the stories of guitar dying are exaggerated.

But if true, that's more great guitars for cheap for those of us who still play.

That's interesting the black, white, and blonde ones sell for less. Is that true? Those are all classic colors that I thought people loved.

[wooderson]

That's interesting the black, white, and blonde ones sell for less. Is that true? Those are all classic colors that I thought people loved.

No proof at all, just noticing that the metallic colors and famous Fender colors disappear faster. I think it makes sense, the unique qualities are a selling point - the world is full of black guitars, fewer aged metallics.

[Francer]

Surely the issue for future "vintage" Danocasters would be how to spot a fake, given that they are assembled from (mostly?) off the shelf parts and artifically aged?

[Despot]

I think the custom/rare Fender colour Danocasters will hold their value better than a standard colour.

If you think about it, a lot of people buy Danos as replacements for vintage guitars that are priced out of reach. Having seen his work on a body that I used in a Jazzmaster build, I can understand why. It's fantastic work, and as close as you'll get without shelling out serious money.

The rarer the colour on a vintage guitar, the bigger the mark up. Sure ... it might not sell as easily (and could hang around Reverb for years), but stores will look for a much higher price for these models. That's where the differential between a Danocaster and a vintage guitar makes most sense. Charcoal frost Jazzmaster costs 11k? Build a Dano instead.

[j mascis]

What about prices for danos with rare pickup configurations instead of rare colors?

I think that makes a lot of sense as well, because it would cost a lot to have fender do that. His "mongrel" line for example. I believe those start at $2700 in any color due to the pickup work (I could be wrong, but I think that's the starting price). They tend to have a mix of humbuckers and P90s or two humbuckers or two p90s in a tele, etc.

[j mascis]

Surely the issue for future "vintage" Danocasters would be how to spot a fake, given that they are assembled from (mostly?) off the shelf parts and artifically aged?

Given the opinions of how spot-on and hard to replicate Dano's aging process is, they should be easy to spot. And the smooth necks, etc. I'm going to buy one soon, so we'll see if that's all true.

I'd be curious to hear if people think models like the Mongrel with rare pickup configurations are worth more or less. To me they're worth more because I can get the standard configurations from Fender or many other spots. But maybe I'm wrong, so it would be nice to hear some thoughts before buying.

[wooderson]

Value is based in part on demand - is there more demand for a traditional Telecaster or one with a humbucker and P90?

You might theoretically get just as much for the latter in the end but there are going to be more people looking for the former.

[j mascis]

Value is based in part on demand - is there more demand for a traditional Telecaster or one with a humbucker and P90?

You might theoretically get just as much for the latter in the end but there are going to be more people looking for the former.

They'd probably want the traditional, but personally, I want a Gibson guitar but without the Gibson 16 degree angled headstock that always breaks and has tuning problems, and also want a fender without a tremolo (all my others have it, and I want something simple), so a Tele with P90s and Buckers is an incredible alternative. Really versatile, too, where as a traditional Tele does one or two things well. A P90 and Hum can get you anything from jazz to punk and everything in between. So, to me the latter is more valuable.

But I hear you, and you're probably right in that most would want the standard config. I never liked the overly bright twang of the tele bridge pickup, tbh. I know it's a classic sound. On the flipside, there is probably very little supply of the latter to meet whatever demand there is. I know I've had a hard time finding one.

Interesting thoughts, thanks for chiming in.

[gnoleb]

Supply and demand dictate price.

Assuming that price fixing and perceived value don't exist. I say that respectfully. If what you said was true, the corner house on the busy street would be 33% cheaper because of the noise, traffic, and insurance risks. And an American standard strat from 15 years ago would be much cheaper than one a few years old. Never happens like that.

For mine it's someone that builds stringed instruments from raw materials.

Because the person Fender pays $22 an hour to shape from raw wood is WAY better than the person Warmoth or whomever pays around the same to do it? I don't think that is likely, but if it makes you feel better, sure.

Maybe, actually, Fender has much, much tighter margins due to their business being 99% retail (with at least 1 middle man, 2 or more in international business), so maybe they have to buy the absolutely cheapest woods they can find on their non-custom shop lines in order to maximize that corporate profit. Which sounds more likely? They employ the top woodworkers or buy the cheapest wood they can find?

I noticed danocasters went up $200 for him to build a new one.

Part of this is, I believe, is because his wait list started to push close to a year (he recently posted an instragram of finally clearing his recent list of builds, which I don't think he did because he was 100% on time with a low amount of orders). His wait time keeps going up because he keeps attracting uninformed customers somehow? Not likely. Within a month of getting my Jazzmaster from Dano, I put in my order for my single cut. I didn't do that because I was weighing resale values or looking at trends with resale, tho.

Probably in the long run, it won't be anything special.

He's right, but for the wrong reasons. Don't try to predict a trend or get value. If that is a major reason why you'd want a Dano, please stay off his list so someone who truly wants one can get theirs sooner.

Given the opinions of how spot-on and hard to replicate Dano's aging process is, they should be easy to spot. And the smooth necks, etc. I'm going to buy one soon, so we'll see if that's all true.

My advice-- don't unless you are truly seeking a fantastic instrument with unparalleled feel and depth to it. The more I play both of mine, the more I discover and find new things.

If you want great resale and something that plays very good, get a Fender. Of you really want investment value, spring for a vintage Fender (limited supply and perceived value is going to keep them growing).

[Despot]

Assuming that price fixing and perceived value don't exist. I say that respectfully. If what you said was true, the corner house on the busy street would be 33% cheaper because of the noise, traffic, and insurance risks. And an American standard strat from 15 years ago would be much cheaper than one a few years old. Never happens like that.

Yep ... that's my point. Demand is dictated by whatever it's dictated by - whether it's actual value, perceived value, what guitar players talk about when they're drinking beer, what way the wind is blowing on any particular day ... whatever random factoids influence people's thinking.

Demand is also influenced by supply - the less common something is the more likely that someone, somewhere, will determine that it's more valuable than the more common thing. It doesn't matter if it has an actual intrinsic use - gold was the measure of wealth for a long time before we understood anything about it's use as a conductor. People just liked that it was shiny and understood that it was rare (and/or difficult to create/find).

In the case of vintage guitars there are a finite number of them. I have an interest in ES model Gibsons - when you look at Gibsons production numbers, the number of ... say ES345s made in the first few years was really small. You're almost talking what would be considered a limited edition from Gibson or Fender today. Add in the destruction/modification factor and you've limited that starting pool of ES345s even further.

The only potential fly in the ointment in terms of supply is the fact that many of the baby boomers who collect guitars have been stockpiling these for years and are now starting to release them to the guitar market. If you follow Norman's Rare Guitars you might have noticed how an increasing number of their 'guitar of the day' videos are featuring guitars taken from Norm's own 'stash' where they've been sitting for over 20+ years. He's a dealer ... so he won't flood the market. But consider the collectors who have been gathering stuff for decades who aren't dealers - they're all getting on a bit and in ten or more years you could see a lot of the stuff that's been under lock and key for decades flood the market as they clear probate and you get estate sales.

I've owned at least 15 ES guitars at this stage I think - from new to vintage. There are bad ES models from before 1965, just as there are good models from modern Gibsons (which are ... in theory ... not subject to limits in terms of how many there are, as they're always making more). There are just fewer mediocre ES guitars from the McCarthy years. I've played ... maybe 20? I'd say 20. I have a habit of always picking up an ES guitar when I see one in a store ... so I'm guessing I've played about that many over the years. They've definitely got something. You can hear it before you even plug it in and ... yep, PAF pickups can sound mediocre too, or exceptional ... so I have played guitars that amazed unplugged but made me go 'huh' when I plugged them in.

Sorry ... rambling response. What I'm saying is that there are elements of the vintage market that I think are over priced and have no value, and there are certain types/years of guitar that have value as instruments over and above modern equivalents. I have yet to play a modern ES guitar that sounds better than my own '62 ES345 - whether amp-ed or unplugged. It rings like an acoustic when you play it unplugged (it's louder than the equally good ES330 that sits beside it, despite having a centre block, heavy varitone choke and a lot more weight than the ES330!).

In that context, if you had the funds for a Danocaster (running around 3k or 3.5k I'm guessing these days) there are other things to consider if you want a fantastic guitar that will also hold it's value - at that price range you could easily pick up a SG Junior in good condition from the McCarthy years - those are also excellent instruments (again, I've rarely played an off Junior from either the '50s up to '65). The question originally posed was about the resale value of Danos and whether they were a good investment. I don't think so, if you're thinking of a guitar as purely somewhere to put money.

However, buying a SG Junior is no use if what you want is a Danocaster. Dan makes some of the nicest looking relic guitars that I have ever seen. I've never played one, but I trust the judgement of many on here who have and by all accounts they are exceptional instruments. OSGers put Dan's guitars on the same level as vintage Fenders - the differential in price between a vintage Fender and a Danocaster, particularly in custom colours, makes the Danocaster a really sensible option if you want a Charcoal Frost Jazzmaster, or Daphne Blue B&B etc. He'll make you one - and it will be awesome. More than likely, given how few there are and the build times ... it'll hold it's value. But while Dan is continuing to make new guitars it'll never go up in value - the same way that a McCarthy Gibson didn't appreciate in 1964 ... or even 1967. I've seen a McCarthy Gibson that was factory refinished in a metallic colour that had, at the same time, the PAFs 'upgraded' to Patent Number pickups by the factor in the late '60s because ... at the time ... these were marketed as an improved pickup - now that seems like madness given the price you'll pay for any PAF over a late '60s Pat No. - and, cards on the table ... I actually prefer late '60s Patent Number pickups so this is purely an argument on subjective value/worth.

Here's another thing to consider - Dan is a good guy. Though I've never bought one of his guitars, I did buy an Inca Silver JM body that he finished for someone here on OSG years ago. I was building my own partsmaster using a Musikraft neck - it came out really well in the end. Anyway .. during the build I was thinking about going with a matching headstock, but decided against it in the end. Still, Dan sent me a PM and offered to match the headstock to the body, and to age the neck and do any fret work that might have been needed. Sure, he wasn't offering to do this for free ... but to do this would have taken time out of his normal guitar making for a fellow OSGer just to help them finish a build.

So ... to the OP's original question, by all means buy a guitar from Dan. He makes exceptional instruments and he's an all round stand up guy. But buy it as a great guitar, not an investment. And who knows ... over time when Dan pulls the shutters down on guitar making (hopefully a long time from now) it might even go up in value thanks to all us OSGers lusting after something we can no longer have so easily...

[andy_tchp]

For mine it's someone that builds stringed instruments from raw materials.

Because the person Fender pays $22 an hour to shape from raw wood is WAY better than the person Warmoth or whomever pays around the same to do it? I don't think that is likely, but if it makes you feel better, sure.

So pardon me but I'm a bit confused. What are you on about exactly? Does what make me feel better? Did you mean to quote someone else's post before you started ranting?

I've not made any mention of Fender, Warmoth, their employees respective hourly rates, levels of skill, wood costs, wood/materials quality, margins, profits, middle men or distribution.

My comment which you've kindly quoted was a fairly simple response to the question of what constitutes a 'luthier', specifically:

* I'm not sure when you get that title? Perhaps when your guitars cost more than, let's say $5K)

And what's any of the above got to do with Danocaster's offerings?

[mcjt]

I doubt that Danocasters will be worth that much in the future. They have been assembled guitars from parts manufactured by Allparts, Guitar Mill or other 3rd party companies. It doesn't take away from the fact he does a nice repro, distressing and set-up.